Technical Analysis by TradeSmarter.com, August 20, 2012

Pubblicato il 20 agosto 2012 da borsaforextradingfinanza

EUR/USD Forecast August 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell during most of the session on Friday, but did manage to bounce in order to form a hammer. We are currently hugging the uptrend line of a rising wedge, and as such we are seeing supportive action. However, we think that eventually this rising wedge gives way to lower prices and that the lows from the Friday session would signal a good place to start selling if we can get below them.

As for buying this pair, we simply will not do it as there’s far too many headline risks out there currently in the European Union. Also, you have to keep in mind that there are other concerns around the world right now and most of them favor the US dollar in times of concern.

For example, there’s the obvious slowdown in Europe which of course will push money into the United States. However, there is are also the concerns of some type of problem between Israel and Iran, and this would more than likely pump money back into the United States in a bit of a “safe haven” trade. Further compounding the situation is the fact that the Chinese are slowing down a bit and this of course will have people worried about the global economy in general. When the economies around the world slowdown, the US dollar becomes can.

We do admit that the hammer forming right on the uptrend line is intriguing. We also recognize the fact that the 1.23 level looks to be supportive as well. But quite frankly, once you get to the 1.24 level, you are running into a massive resistance area. This area runs all the way up to the 1.27 level, and it seems to be very noisy indeed. The epicenter is 1.25, and for a quick and dirty technical analysis is the acceptable “midpoint” for this resistance band. We find it very difficult to think that the situation in Europe suddenly going get better, and more importantly better enough for the market to chew through the next 350 pips. Because of this, we are simply waiting for signs of weakness to sell.

GBP/USD Forecast August 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fell during the Friday session as the 1.57-1.58 area continues to hold back the advances of the buyers. However, as you can see over time we have generally ground our way higher in this market, and it does look like we will eventually break through.

This is a lease the thesis that were working on currently, and it does make sense as the governor of the Bank of England recently stated that monetary policy was about where it needs to be. Contrast that with the expected quantitative easing coming out of the Federal Reserve, and this should continue to work and the British pound’s favor. However, we need to see a daily close above the 1.58 level in order to be confident enough to buy this pair. As for selling, it’s not even a thought right now and won’t be until we are sub 1.55 as it would show a change in momentum.

Crude Oil Prices August 20, 2012, Technical

The light sweet crude markets broke above the $95 level on Thursday, and the Friday situation only seem to accelerate the market for the buyers. We close the day just a few ticks under the $96 level, and as such it does look like we are getting ready to make a serious attempt to reach the $100 a barrel level. With this in mind, we are only buying this market on either pullbacks or new highs.

With the serious headline risk out there right now, it makes sense that oil prices would begin to climb. It also is a reflection of the potential easing out of the Federal Reserve as well. As the Dollar will fall in that type of situation, it will take more of them to buy the commodities such as oil. Because of this, we are willing to buy this market and ride it out until we hit the $100 mark for a short-term trade. We are starting to become much more bullish of this market, but see a lot of volatility over the next couple of weeks. As for selling, we simply aren’t interested in till we get below the $84 level.